Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings
dc.contributor.author | Magliano, Dianna J | |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, Lei | |
dc.contributor.author | Islam, Rakibul | |
dc.contributor.author | Carstensen, Bendix | |
dc.contributor.author | Gregg, Edward W. | |
dc.contributor.author | Pavkov, Meda E. | |
dc.contributor.author | Andes, Linda J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Balicer, Ran | |
dc.contributor.author | Baviera, Marta | |
dc.contributor.author | Dam, Elise Boersma-van | |
dc.contributor.author | Booth, Gillian L. | |
dc.contributor.author | Chan, Juliana C.N. | |
dc.contributor.author | Chua, Yi Xian | |
dc.contributor.author | Fosse-Edorh, Sandrine | |
dc.contributor.author | Fuentes, Sonsoles | |
dc.contributor.author | Gulseth, Hanne Løvdal | |
dc.contributor.author | Gurevicius, Romualdas | |
dc.contributor.author | Ha, Kyoung Hwa | |
dc.contributor.author | Hird, Thomas R. | |
dc.contributor.author | Jermendy, György | |
dc.contributor.author | Khalangot, Mykola | |
dc.contributor.author | Kim, Dae Jung | |
dc.contributor.author | Kiss, Zoltán | |
dc.contributor.author | Kravchenko, Victor I. | |
dc.contributor.author | Leventer-Roberts, Maya | |
dc.contributor.author | Lin, Chun-Yi | |
dc.contributor.author | Luk, Andrea O.Y. | |
dc.contributor.author | Mata-Cases, Manel | |
dc.contributor.author | Mauricio, Didac | |
dc.contributor.author | Nichols, Gregory A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Nielen, MM | |
dc.contributor.author | Pang, Deanette | |
dc.contributor.author | Paul, Sanjoy | |
dc.contributor.author | Pelletier, Catherine | |
dc.contributor.author | Pildava, Santa | |
dc.contributor.author | Porath, Avi | |
dc.contributor.author | Read, Stephanie H. | |
dc.contributor.author | Roncaglioni, Maria Carla | |
dc.contributor.author | Lopez-Doriga Ruiz, Paz | |
dc.contributor.author | Shestakova, Marina | |
dc.contributor.author | Vikulova, Olga | |
dc.contributor.author | Wang, Kang-Ling | |
dc.contributor.author | Wild, Sarah H. | |
dc.contributor.author | Yekutiel, Naama | |
dc.contributor.author | Shaw, Jonathan E. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-12-14T12:45:55Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-12-14T12:45:55Z | |
dc.date.created | 2021-05-11T16:17:41Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
dc.identifier.citation | The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. 2021, 9 (4), 203-211. | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2213-8587 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2834200 | |
dc.description.abstract | Background: Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time. Methods: In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. Findings: Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions. Interpretation: The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources. Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program. | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.title | Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings | |
dc.type | Peer reviewed | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
dc.description.version | publishedVersion | |
dc.source.pagenumber | 203-211 | |
dc.source.volume | 9 | |
dc.source.journal | The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology | |
dc.source.issue | 4 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30402-2. | |
dc.identifier.cristin | 1909508 | |
cristin.ispublished | true | |
cristin.fulltext | original | |
cristin.qualitycode | 1 |
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